Notes on Factors that determine Voting Behaviour

What factors determine voting behaviour?

Gender: this is a somewhat negligible factor, though there are certain differences. In the 1997 election, women were more likely to vote Labour. This may have been as a result of the family-friendly policies of the Labour party, e.g. SureStart.

- The Fawcett society found that in the 2017 general election, women were 2.5% less likely to say they were certain to vote. Nevertheless, this doesn’t translate into historical trends - in 1997 women were more likely to vote than men, but it was the opposite in 2010.

- Plays heavily with age - in the 2015 general election, younger women were 16.5% more likely to vote Labour than young men.

Class: continuing process of class dealignment, where traditional class-based voting interests become less pronounced and lose their influence. This is not to say that people don’t still vote based on their own economic interests.

- In 2017, those who identified as ‘old middle class’ were far less likely to vote Labour (28%) than those who identified as ‘new middle class’ (41%). The progression from the 2015 to the 2017 election quite clearly shows the process of class dealignment - in 2015, 27% of those who identified as ‘working class’ voted Conservative, but in 2017, 45% did.

- Those with a degree (and who are more likely to be middle class) were more likely to vote Labour in 2017 - 39% for Conservatives and 48% for Labour. However, those with no education were also more likely to vote Labour - 46% to 44% Conservative.

- Reflects broader shifts in the economy towards a service industry.

- One would assume that a socialist platform would attract more working class voters, but there are many other issues affecting this, for instance issues around foreign policy and law and order. Many of the ‘core’ Labour voters are far more socially conservative. Labour lost Stoke-On-Trent but gained Kensington.

- Significant differences in turnout between classes. In 2017, turnout among AB was 83%, whereas for C2 and D was 52%. This 31% difference, though exceptionally high, is part of a consistent trend.

Age: a highly significant factor. YouGov found that 66% of 18-19 year olds voted Labour in the 2017 general election, and 69% of those who were 70+ voted Conservative.

- Turnout for the young is normally significantly lower than for the old - it was 84% among 70+.

- ‘Youthquake’ in the 2017 general election. This saw Labour gain control of younger, metropolitan constituencies like Canterbury.

- Increasing division between older and younger generation on class; Conservatives increased their support among old middle class from 2015 to 2017, from 54% to 59%.

Ethnicity: not a particularly important factor, though ethnic minorities are more traditionally inclined to vote Labour, perhaps because of their historical commitment to racial equality and progressive, anti-poverty measures. For instance, Harold Wilson’s Race Relations Act 1965.

- In the 2010 election, 60% of ethnic minorities voted Labour but only 16% for the Conservatives.

- Turnout is lower for those from ethnic minority backgrounds - 51% versus 67%. However, the BME population rose from 5% of the total population in 1991 to 13% in 2011.

- Number of constituencies where BME are 40+% of the population have risen from 7 in 1991 to 49 according to the 2011 census. It’s becoming a more important factor.

Region: strong regional bias. In former industrial areas with high structural unemployment there remains much animosity towards Conservatives and the legacy of Thatcher. For instance, in Liverpool in the 2010 general election, Labour won five times as many votes as the Conservatives in the five constituencies.

- Issues that are salient in the South are not resonant in the North.

- Regional pride, for instance in Scotland, has resulted in the collapse of Labour. In the 2015 general, Labour were reduced to just 2 MPs. Perhaps a form of instrumental voting?

- Labour is increasingly losing support in traditional working class seat and increasing it in more metropolitan constituencies. Emma Dent Coad narrowly won Kensington for Labour, a metropolitan and liberal area, but Corbyn is increasingly being seen as more appealing to socially liberal voters than economically left-wing ones.

1979 General Election Party policies and manifestos: both Labour and the Conservative manifestos were notable for their moderation - both proposed to bring inflation down. Callaghan was, though an ‘old Labour’ Prime Minister, part of Labour’s right wing, and he resisted many of the left-wing proposals. Thatcher, though mentioning returning recently nationalised industries to private hands and removing some trade union powers, made no suggestion of a radical crusade to scale down the state. Campaign: Callaghan’s ‘crisis? What crisis?’ gaffe added weight to the Conservatives’ claims that the country needed a new economic direction. The Conservatives adopted many of the techniques of modern advertising, under the guidance of Gordon Reece and Tim Bell. Thatcher made effective use of photo opportunities. Though Callaghan was 20 points ahead of Thatcher in terms of who would make a better Prime Minister, it was the wider political context that determined the outcome of the election. Context: Callaghan’s government lost a vote of no-confidence prior to the election, and he mistimed it; there was widespread expectation that he would call an election in 1978, but he backed away from doing it. This was shortly followed by the winter of discontent which had disastrous political implications - same mistake made by Brown. Perception that Callaghan was failing to deal with unions. Vote against Labour: Healey, the Chancellor, came under criticism on his tour around Scotland.

1997 General Election Party policies and manifestos: Blair drove the modernisation of Labour. ‘New Labour’ abandoned the traditional Labour policies of nationalisation, high taxation and the strengthening of trade union powers. Gave off tough signals on law and order, an issue that mattered to voters following rising crime rates in the early 1880s. Blair emphasised his links to the business community. Won the endorsement of the press, including the Sun and the Times. 1997 platform stressed specific policy details, e.g. smaller class sizes and cutting hospital waiting lists, or reducing child poverty. Constitutional reform was very important - common ground with the Liberal democrats. Easier for Liberal Democrats to vote tactically for Labour in marginal seats. The importance of constitutional reform was shown by the fact that all but 1 of the then-new 34 Liberal Democrat MPs in England came at the expense of the Conservatives. Conservatives won no seats in Wales or Scotland. McKibbin sees 1997 as a result of the contradictions of Conservative government. The deflationary, monetarist rhetoric, it was assumed in 1979, would alone mobilise the electorate. But this was not the case. The government had to decide whether it was ‘productionist’ or ‘consumptionist’. It was ‘productionist’ in its deflationary policy, thought that thrift, hard work, managerialism. But this was unpopular. Government’s recourse was a ‘consumptionist’ boom fuelled by North Sea oil. As long as you were in the right time at the right place, you could make money easily and quickly. This led to the notion of citizen as consumer. Britain, though, did not have the productive capacity to maintain the Lawson boom. There is only so much privatization and oil can do. Black Wednesday obliterated the Conservative party line that all other parties were incompetent and they were the stable managers. The government’s notion of ‘popular capitalism’ and idea that shares in selling off state owned assets and right-to-buy would create a clientele wedded to the Conservative party. This has certainly had an ideological impact, but large pension funds and wealthy investors disproportionately gained. These effectively constituted large payments by the taxpayer since many of the assets were sold at extremely low prices. At the same time, top rates of taxes were slashed and customary constraints on executive pay were reduced. This was not particularly popular with the electorate, indeed it contributed to a growing sense of resentment as people realised that they were not sharing in this new capitalist bonanza. There was a sense that the Conservative idea of ‘hard work’ and ‘thrift’ had been exposed as a sham against the extraordinary greed and absurd behaviour of Britain’s boardrooms who were profiting off of undervalued public assets. Thatcher was seen as a very authoritarian leader, particularly due to her promotion of centralised authority and dismissal of constitutional reform. This was viewed unfavourably. Contradiction between Thatcher’s idea of starting a revolution to sweep away the ‘wetness’ and the inefficiency, implying a radical and critical edge, and the fact that her ideology was essentially reactionary. New Labour, in their election campaign, placed a big emphasis on developing a professional vote-winning process, employing public relations experts to handle the media. Alastair Campbell played an important role in this. Importance shouldn’t be overstated. Share of the vote increased by 12.5% of the seats it targeted, but by 13.4% in the constituencies it neglected. Turnout was relatively low at 71.4%, so only 30% of the registered electorate voted Labour. Perhaps more accurate to describe it as the failure of the Conservative government. They had lost their reputation as competent economic managers. Big impact of sleaze. Reinforced the perception that the Conservatives were faded compared to the new, professional Labour. There was a larger swing to Labour among women (10%) rather than men (8%) Substantial impact of the media. Much of the press got behind Blair - ‘Sun Wot Won It’. Blair made a conscious effort to get on good terms with Murdoch. Met with him, along with the New Labour team, on the Cayman Islands. It is unclear about the actual impact the Sun had, though it was undoubtedly true that media backing across the establishment press helped Labour (but much of the press still backed Conservatives). Possible that right-wing broadsheets like the Telegraph and (though more establishment) the Times were becoming less important. Spin doctors as Campbell attempted a deliberate strategy of press management and pushing the Labour message at all times, with MPs towing a deliberate and consistent line. Context of embourgeoisement meant that Labour were losing their traditional bases of support as unions and manufacturing, heavy industries, were decimated by Thatcherism (reduced manufacturing base by 30%). Blair appealed to what he thought of as the Mondeo Man. He wanted social advancement and was interested in policies of reward rather than redistribution (typically from C1, aspirational lower middle class). 41% of ABs voted Conservative, 50% of C2s, 59% of DEs voted Labour. But since 1992, the Conservatives share among AB decreased by 15%.